Exhibit 12.17

At this point it's clear who has seized the momentum in the current economic environment. It's not really even McCain's fault, honestly. He just so happens to represent the party that has pushed deregulation and privatization for the past 30 years at a time when it's abundantly clear that the former didn't work and the latter would have meant disaster for those depending upon Social Security (e.g. most everyone). Oh, right, I guess that does mean it's a little his fault.

No matter what you think of the collective memory of the American electorate, it's not hard for people to look at the stock market and know what privatizing Social Security would have meant. Nor is it hard for them to see through the blatant hypocrisy of these bailouts being engineered by a Republican administration which couldn't have shed the mantle of individual responsibility, privatization, and small government fast enough once it became clear a significant number of banks were going to fail. Thank god that, at least for the moment, the brakes are being put on the bailout plan so that it isn't just a trillion dollar giveaway to incompetent (yet over compensated) CEOs who, rest assured, aren't going to be giving that money back once they're in the black. I don't know, I guess I feel like since I'm going to be paying for AIG for the rest of my life, I might as well, you know, own some of it.

Anyway, I mention it only because a full week after the dominoes started falling John McCain just announced he's suspending his campaign and is asking to delay this Friday's debate in order for both parties to come together in order to solve the problem. On a purely political level, it's an interesting move but no less risky than his choice of Palin for the ticket (how's that working out, senator?). It's clear that whatever bounce he had coming out of the convention wasn't sustainable so again we have McCain throwing a Hail Mary and hoping that this will somehow make him seem like a decisive economic leader. It could work, I guess, though it's hard to imagine enough people being convinced considering there's no reason he couldn't have done this a week ago and actually gotten something done. As is, McCain's certainly going to piss off Bush who believes he has a solution (and is going on TV tonight in order to convince you he has one too) and has already pissed off the Obama camp who have an interesting choice to make themselves.

On the one hand, if Obama capitulates he plays into McCain's hand. On the other, he doesn't want to play the politician while McCain gets to be the bi-partisan hero for a plan that is more or less agreed to in principle.

(There were three things holding the plan up, none of them McCain's absence from Washington:
1. House members didn't want to do it now since taxpayers hate it and they're all up for election.
2. Dems, rightly, wanted oversight and a restriction on CEO pay in addition to a chance for at least some money to come back the government's way.
3. Even if the details could be agreed to, both parties seemed a little tentative in how their nominees would end up on the issue. Mostly, McCain didn't want to tie himself further with Bush while Obama was afraid that if he came out in favor of a modified Bush plan that McCain would oppose it for political reasons and leave him holding the bag. By the way, this totally would have happened and still might.)

The most likely scenario at the moment is that Obama's camp punts and says A) We haven't been campaigning anyway due to the debate prep and B) Senator Obama has been working with leaders including the McCain camp on a solution and C) It's not our decision to delay the debate and until we hear otherwise we intend to be in Mississippi on Friday. If they want to get really frisky they'll call for the debate on Friday to be at least partially about economic issues and then say something like, "We agree with Senator McCain but, for obvious reasons, feel like the debate should go on in order for the American people to hear each candidate's position on what should be done."

If it were me, I'd say that last move would be their best gambit here. I think they're comfortably enough ahead that they can take the high road while they let the media point out that there is no reason (other than sliding poll numbers) for McCain to call for this today as opposed to yesterday, last Friday, or last Tuesday. There's also bound to be more talk of Palin's experience level over this, especially after what's been the disaster of her trip to New York. Plus, no one thinks McCain is the economic wizard who is single-handedly going to fly to Washington and solve this problem.

Another interesting, if ironic, wrinkle: this move by McCain actually delays any sort of bailout package and could potentially have an adverse affect on the stock market tomorrow. If he'd stayed out of it, something probably would have been figured out in the next few days. Now it's anybody's guess because he's made it a partisan issue by pretending it's not one (which, again very ironically, it actually really wasn't before. Sure, the bailout didn't sail through, but that's mostly because it's an awful plan without a clearly better option). If the markets open down tomorrow and the bailout breaks down along party lines in the coming days, this certainly isn't going to look like McCain coming to the rescue.

Exhibit 11.24

Vice Presidential Candidate Review

Outside of those hopelessly pining for Clinton or Bush '04 voters who jumped to Obama but hoped he'd make his claims of bipartisanship explicit and nominate Hagel, it's hard not to like Biden. His negatives all seem to be the stuff of Washington gossip that no one else really seems to care about because, you know, they're making house payments and saving for college as opposed to worrying about what senators may be on the annoying side of loqacious. Even the punchline set can't do much with that fact since A) There's nothing funny to say about it and B) He's a politician campaigning so he's supposed to be talking a lot this time of year.

His only other negative--his long tenure in Washington--is, in this case, mostly a positive since it shores up any doubts about Obama's experience and gives him someone both respected in the senate and internationally admired as a surrogate at home and abroad. If nothing else, it's a pick that screams competency, a criminally overlooked quality in this election which, though it's never going to show up in polls, is probably the number one reason why the democrats are so well positioned. When people say they trust the Dems more on the economy--a party they've been told for 30 years will raise their taxes and take their jobs--what they're really saying is that they don't trust the Republicans to do it (or anything else outside of protect the country. And even that...)

In addition to playing some of Biden's anti-Obama rhetoric from the primary, which campaigns always do when a former competitor for the nomination gets the VP nod, expect the McCain camp to start saying how much they admire Biden and wish the positions on the ticket were reversed. In other words, they're going to try to use this pick to highlight Obama's inexperience, but it's hard to see how this line of attack is going to have any teeth because...

...more than any other pick this puts a lot of pressure on McCain. Had Obama picked Hillary, the election would be more or less over and McCain would probably have chosen an outsider and hoped for the resentment vote or a major gaffe to send people back his way. Had Obama picked a relative unknown like Kaine, McCain would have picked the most seasoned (yet not old) person he could find and just hammered their inexperience to lead and we'd probably hear a lot more about terrorism. With Biden, however, Obama pretty much made the first gambit in the experience game which puts McCain in a very awkard position.

He can try to follow suit and go with Romney or a senate colleague we're not hearing much about. This seems to have been McCain's first instinct, especially when some of the smaller names were mentioned for Obama's slot. That would have been a smart play, but now, with Biden getting a week to claim this role for himself, it wouldn't exactly come across bold leadership. The entire narrative has been claimed by Obama who is undoubtedly going to continue to talk about having someone to challenge his ideas--again, competency in an administration being the unspoken idea there--which is exactly what McCain would have needed to say to make a pick like Romney palatable to anyone, including his base. Sure he can still do it--and my guess is he will--but no one is going to care since it's clear that A) He hates Romney and B) America does too.

His other option is to go the opposite route and pick a young "Change" candidate to counter Obama and then claim that they arranged the ticket the right way (with experience on top). This isn't a bad move except for the fact McCain's entire campaign is now buoyed by his attacks on Obama's alleged superficiality and celebrity status. Picking, say, Jindal, seems to make such attacks hypocritical, especially since Jindal couldn't make them himself without looking like he has a total lack of self-awareness. The other issue here is that Biden is a great debater who, with his insanely long senate record, is likely going to make whomever McCain throws up there look silly, especially on foreign policy issues. Picking Pawlenty and his recently deceased mullet is not going to go over well once he has to admit that, outside of maybe Canada, he's probably never had cause to go to a foreign country or meet a foreign leader.

McCain's base pick would be Huckabee, but it's almost impossible to see. Christian conservatives rally behind him or not, there Republicans just don't have the numbers this year with their base. McCain simply has to keep showing up at whatever godawful forums and meetings and abstinence-only ice cream socials those people throw and hope they come out for him anyway. They will. Come out, I mean.

The only worrisome thing about Obama's pick is that Biden is known more for his foreign policy credentials than his economic ones. Given the way this economy is performing, it wouldn't be too much to ask for him to play up his experience here. People seem all but ready to forget Iraq and Afghanistan if gas prices stay high. It's unfortunate, but it is what it is. This seems like the biggest reason why Romney should be McCain's pick even if it pisses off everyone except Wall Street (including McCain himself). Romney--with his lack of conscious and ruthless ambition--will go after Obama just as hard as Biden is going to go after McCain (whereas someone like Pawlenty wouldn't have the balls or the gravitas). Even if Obama-Biden has already seized on the Team of Rivals-style consensus narrative, McCain could at least hope that Romney would show people that he's not the crazy, grudge-holding coot that they think he is (and he, um, is).

Of course, Romney's weakness are obvious, not least of which is his religion. No one is going to think harder about how close he is to the White House than religious conservatives who might be tempted by the unstoppable force of Obama's, and now Biden's, personal story that confirm everything they believe about the world. The other obvious handicap is for every bad thing Biden ever said on tape about Obama, there are about five worse things Romney has said about McCain (and vice versa). There would be some ugly, ugly ads running in conjunction with a convention where the two men--who obviously hate each other--would be on stage obviously hating each other. It would make the palpable coldness of Kerry-Edwards '04 seem like the hotness of Floozy-Edwards '06-'08.

In any case, Obama's made the right call. I personally wish Bill Richardson would have gotten more play, but with international issues taking a backseat to domestic issues and the need for a more LBJ-esque elder statesman on the ticket, it's understandable that he didn't. McCain's pick is probably going to say a lot more about how he plans to run the rest of his campaign than this says about Obama's plans. If nothing else, Obama should be praised for picking someone he thought was the best candidate rather than someone who helps his electoral map. It fits with his entire narrative about doing what's right as opposed to what's politically convenient and the contrast to McCain's pick--which is going to be about math more than anything else--is going to be clear. People won't vote for Obama because of Biden, but his choice only confirms what we already know about Obama. If McCain is lucky, his choice won't do the same.

Exhibit 2.27

I'm really, really going to miss Ernie Chambers. I don't agree with him on everything--Omaha's racially-segregated public school plan is the most recent example--but it's hard to imagine what will become of this state without him. As one man, he has through sheer force of will made a backward and donothing unicameral devoid of any leadership (or diversity) confront issues of poverty, minority and woman's rights, and an unbalanced criminal justice system.

He's not always right. He doesn't always win. But it's hard to imagine anyone filling his shoes when some dude from Alma who got $500 from the NRA proposes a constitutional amendment guaranteeing the right to hunt illegal immigrants or whatever. Anyone in Nebraska should start bracing themselves now for South Dakota-esque attempts to ban abortion. Oh, and forget about abolishing the death penalty (Chambers's signature issue). Sigh.

He's out of office after 2008 due to term limits (which, by the way, were passed solely to get him out of office). Here's hoping he follows through on his threat to have a patsy win his seat and then step down so Ernie can run for it again.

Anyway, he's going to be getting a lot of press due to this. Let's see if we can guess some of The Tonight Show's jokes hours before they hit the air! A Nebraska State Senator is suing God....

• God is challenging the lawsuit on the grounds that he's never been to Nebraska.
• I guess he really wanted (American Idol contestant) to beat (American Idol contestant).
• True story, true story. Unfortunately, there aren't any lawyers in heaven. (exaggerated laugh)
• When reached for comment, God said, Who's Ernie Chambers? (ed note: this one I think is actually funny. Which is why it won't air. I imagine. I can't say I've actually seen The Tonight Show in seven or eight years).
• Thankfully for God, George Bush has already pardoned him. (ed note: this is my favorite kind of hack comedy joke, one that bends reality or willfully misunderstands it for the sake of the punchline).
• Seriously, folks, stay tuned for George Lopez.

Watch for it.