Exhibit 1.21

Presidential Candidate Review: Mike Huckabee


Maybe it's just me, but I like the fat Mike Huckabee better. It's a little disconcerting that a politician can lose 125 lbs. and go from a Pat Buchanan/Newt Gingrich/Dennis Hastert-esque Republican--gluttonous off the flesh of the common man and guzzling chalice after chalice of high cholesterol whale blood or whatever--to an actual contender for something other than first in line at the Heritage Foundation's annual potluck (Ed note: Ann Coulter is the one who brings the store bought cupcakes). This new Mike Huckabee is positively normal looking. Hell, I'll even call him dynamic. He's basically doing what Al Gore is doing only the opposite (which is smart for the both of them. Gore looks much better with a wise, professorial bulge whereas Huckabee seemed miscast as a fat man. Both move much more comfortably in their new body types [and presumably pants]. Look no further than Al Gore dancing at the first inauguration).

Here's the thing about Huckabee: He's long scared the hell out of me.

He's basically a Protestant, affable Sam Brownback and that's a formidable thing in the Republican primaries and a potentially dangerous thing against certain Democratic candidates. He's sort of the sleeping dragon of the election only after his surprising finish in the utterly meaningless Iowa Straw Poll, he's started to get a lot of press as the candidate with momentum. He's scared me before that for one simple reason: He's the most obvious choice as the candidate to come out of the Republican primaries if you take away name recognition and money. Consider these anonymous candidates:

Man 1: Thrice divorced, big city east coast mayor who supports abortion rights, is somewhat gay-friendly, and who is positively hated by most of the people involved in his biggest "moment". See Veterans, Swift Vote. Oh, and Catholic if that matters to Republican voters. And it might.

Man 2: Old, somewhat crazy once-maverick Senator who supports campaign finance reform, opposed tax cuts for awhile, and who has simultaneously managed to cozy up to president he hates (thus alienating his base) while continuing to support things people who like the president hate like immigration reform (which pretty much takes care of everyone else).

Man 3: Former 2+ term Southern governor who is very popular in his home state, is socially conservative but doesn't seem dogmatic about it, has an inspiring story of weight loss and seems to be part presidential candidate and part self-help guru. Is a great campaigner and people seem to come away from meeting him somewhat in love. Is a Baptist minister though apparently more of the Rick Warren/life is good type than a fire and brimstone guy. Some have called him "dynamic."

Man 4: Mormon.

Now, which one of those guys seems most likely to win the nomination? Of course, it's stupid to take away external factors, but my point is that Mike Huckabee is an exceedingly dangerous candidate once he builds some momentum. Hell, we basically already elected a guy with his resume (though not his beliefs) once: Bill Clinton. The similarities between the two are spooky right down to their both having been born in Hope, Arkansas.

(Brief aside: What would the odds be if Hope, Arkansas ended up producing two presidents. Don't get me wrong, I hope it doesn't happen, but seriously? The city has 10,000 people in it, is in the middle of rural Arkansas, and has a median income of 25k with 27% of people below the poverty line. Take that, Exeter.)

Of course, with the primaries all moved forward Huckabee isn't probably going to win the nomination. Whereas in the past he could have won/finished 2nd in Iowa and tried to parlay that into a victory in South Carolina, in this years election he'll be hard pressed to make a dent now that the primaries are more Western/Eastern and less Midwest/Southern which is where he plays well. If enough Republicans can hold their noses (and their Bibles) to vote for Giuliani or Romney on Super Duper Tuesday, Huckabee's done. And good, I say.

In a general election, Huckabee could be a problem. We've elected presidents for dumber reasons than that they seem like a good people. In fact, you can pretty much say our last two presidents were elected for this very reason. Plus, Huckabee's reasonably well-insulated against this administration's policies (even though he supports them) whereas the more prominent candidates will get some guilt by association for debacles like Iraq. In other words, Huckabee could walk into a matchup against, say, Clinton as never having to have made one vote on Iraq (or anything else of note) yet still has the experience of a long governorship to fall back on. He's scares me because Americans love candidates like that. We elect governors president, not senators, which all the prominent Democrats just so happen to be this time around.

His best V.P. pick would be a strong foreign policy, pro-business guy from outside the South or Midwest. McCain is probably the obvious choice but there's no way in hell. None of the other Republican candidates fit the bill (maybe Romney, but again, no way), but I'm sure there's someone out there to play Cheney to Huckabee's Bush. (God help us if it is somehow Colin Powell). With an older, well-liked V.P. candidate by his side, Huckabee would be a tough matchup for someone like Clinton, a brutal matchup for Edwards, and a fairly easy matchup for Obama. Against Clinton, Huckabee will have freshness on his side and a strong V.P. pick might negate some of the foreign policy inexperience. Hillary's voting record and the general love/hate relationship with the public might just be enough for a charming, humorous man's man like Huckabee to win over moderates and anti-Hillary women.

Edwards v. Huckabee would basically be a beauty pageant which each one trying to out Southern Charm us to death.

Obama v. Huckabee would be similar though ultimately Obama's story is better than Huckabee's plus he seems even fresher and more dynamic.

Huckabee is an ideal V.P. pick for Giuliani, and a slightly less ideal one for Romney (there would be a lot of religious-focus there that they wouldn't probably want). Basically, he's the Republican John Edwards only with a far superior resume for his particular base. Unfortunately, Republicans seem to be realizing this as we speak. He has other negatives I haven't really gone into (the religious stuff would hurt him in the general election, a lot of fat pictures out there, his last name doesn't sound presidential, etc.), but he's the only Republican who doesn't have that No fucking way are the Republicans nominating a _______ (Mormon, NYer, Crazy Person). That scares me.